The record of the late-July meeting, released Wednesday, is about as clear as these documents get. Many participants judged that further tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not come down. Some went further and said financial conditions might not currently be restrictive enough to bring inflation back to two percent.

Read that second sentence again. It is a committee telling itself that the policy stance may already be too loose.

A Federal Reserve official said on Sunday that the two percent inflation target may remain out of reach until the war with Iran ends. American drivers are currently paying close to a dollar a gallon more than they were a year ago. Crude finished last week on its second straight weekly gain, pushed by threats of strikes against Oman, a stated lack of urgency about ending the conflict, and fresh violence in Lebanon.