The record of the late-July meeting, released Wednesday, is about as clear as these documents get. Many participants judged that further tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not come down. Some went further and said financial conditions might not currently be restrictive enough to bring inflation back to two percent.

Read that second sentence again. It is a committee telling itself that the policy stance may already be too loose.

The long bond went above 5.33% on Tuesday, the highest since 2007. The ten-year pushed toward 4.75%. Equities took the message poorly: the Dow shed 703.84 points on Thursday to close at 52,759.21, the S&P fell 0.87% to 7,641.16, the Nasdaq lost 1% to 26,067.17.

What makes this worth a second look is that it happened while expectations of a near-term Fed hike were softening, not hardening. The July jobs report came in weaker than forecast. Inflation cooled during the month. Pricing for a September increase fell from around fifty percent to around thirty. By the usual mechanics, that combination pulls yields down.

A Federal Reserve official said on Sunday that the two percent inflation target may remain out of reach until the war with Iran ends. American drivers are currently paying close to a dollar a gallon more than they were a year ago. Crude finished last week on its second straight weekly gain, pushed by threats of strikes against Oman, a stated lack of urgency about ending the conflict, and fresh violence in Lebanon.